Balance of Trade

Previous: $-78.9B

Forecast: $-96.6B

The balance of trade measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services. Higher than expected balance of trade is bullish, while lower than expected balance of trade is bearish.

The US posted a record trade deficit of $131.4 billion in January 2025, up from a downwardly revised $98.1 billion shortfall in December 2024 and exceeding forecasts of a $127.4 billion gap. Imports surged 10% to an all-time high of $401.2 billion, driven by anticipation of upcoming tariffs. Increases were mostly seen in imports of finished metal shapes ($20.5 billion), pharmaceutical preparations ($5.2 billion), and computers ($3 billion). Exports rose at a slower 1.2% to $269.8 billion, led by civilian aircraft ($1.1 billion) and pharmaceutical preparations ($0.8 billion). On the other hand, sales decreased for soybeans ($-0.8 billion). The US goods trade gap widened with China ($-29.7 billion vs $-25.3 billion in December 2024), the EU ($-25.5 billion vs $-20.4 billion), Switzerland ($-22.8 billion vs $-13 billion), Mexico ($-15.5 billion vs $-15.3 billion), Vietnam ($-11.9 billion vs $-11.4 billion) and Canada ($-11.3 billion vs $-7.9 billion). source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)