Stock Market Events: Catalysts That Could Move Prices

The ADP non-farm employment change for September will be released. Previous: 38K Forecast: 70K The ADP non-farm employment change measures the monthly change in private employment based on the payroll data of around 400,000 U.S. business clients, excluding the farming sector. A higher than expected employment change is bullish, while a lower than expected employment change is bearish. Private businesses in the US added 38K jobs in August 2026, the least since January, following an upwardly revised 46K in July and below forecasts of 47K, reflecting a broader slowdown in the labor market. Education and health care (45K), construction (12K), leisure and hospitality (16K) and financial activities (6K) showed solid hiring. In contrast, manufacturing (-17K), professional services (-16K), trade, transportation and utilities (-5K), natural resources and mining (-5K) and information (-4K) shed jobs. Large companies added 34K jobs while those with fewer than 50 employees added 3K. Meanwhile, pay gains held steady. "Pay can tell us a lot about today's choppy hiring. To understand hiring patterns, you have to look deeply into where pay growth is accelerating, where it's slowing, and for whom. Once-predictable wage growth has been overtaken by the complexities of demographic change, persistent inflation, and AI's effects on jobs", according to Dr. Nela Richardson, ADP. source: Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

The GDP growth rate measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is a key indicator of the economy's overall health. Higher than expected GDP growth is bullish, while lower than expected GDP growth is bearish. The US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.5% in the second quarter of 2026, slowing from 2.1% in the previous quarter and matching the preliminary estimate. Personal consumption expenditures surged 3.4%, the strongest increase since Q3 2025, driven by a 4.3% rise in goods spending and a 3.1% increase in services. Fixed investment climbed 7.0%, led by an 8.5% jump in nonresidential investment, as spending on equipment and intellectual property products benefited from strong AI demand. Residential investment rose 1.3%, ending a five-quarter contraction. Government spending fell 1.0%, dragged by a 13.2% plunge in nondefense federal spending. Net exports also weighed on growth, as imports surged 12.5%, outpacing a 4.5% increase in exports. source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

The change in personal income for August will be released. Previous: 0.4% Forecast: 0.4% Personal income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Higher than expected personal income is bullish, while lower than expected personal income is bearish. Personal income in the US rose by 0.4% from the previous month to $27,115 billion in July of 2026, picking up from the 0.2% increase in the previous month and firmly above market expectations of a 0.2% increase. It was the ninth consecutive increase in personal income, underscoring the resilience of the US economy to energy shocks and high borrowing costs. Meanwhile, disposable personal income rose by 0.5%. The increases were supported by higher compensation from private wages, government social benefits from increases Medicaid and Medicare, and personal income receipts on assets from personal dividends. source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

The change in personal spending for August will be released. Previous: 0.2% Forecast: 0.8% Personal spending measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all spending by consumers. Higher than expected personal spending is bullish, while lower than expected personal spending is bearish. US personal spending increased by $36.3 billion, or 0.2%, in July 2026 from the previous month, slowing from a 0.3% gain in June but exceeding expectations for a 0.1% increase, as an increase in services spending was partially offset by a decline in spending of most goods. Goods spending decreased $49.9 billion, driven by a lower spending on gasoline and other energy goods (down $14 billion), recreational goods and vehicles (down $13.6 billion), motor vehicles and parts (down $9.4 billion) and furnishings and durable household equipment (down $3.8 billion). Meanwhile, spending in overall services increased $86.2 billion, driven by higher spending on financial services and insurance (up $24.3 billion), health care (up $23.2 billion) and housing and utilities (up $16.4 billion). Meanwhile, inflation-adjusted consumer spending was broadly flat in July, following a 0.4% increase in the prior month. source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

The number of non-farm payrolls for September will be released. Previous: 162K Forecast: 100K Non-farm payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. This is a key indicator of job creation and consumer spending. Higher than expected payrolls is bullish, while lower than expected payrolls is bearish. The US economy added 162K jobs in August 2026, the most in five months, following an upwardly revised 23K rise in July and much higher than market expectations of 56K. Employment increased in food services and drinking places by 59K and in local government education by 42K, largely offsetting a decrease in the prior month. Employment in manufacturing continued its upward trend (16K) and increases were also seen in employment in machinery manufacturing (6K) and in fabricated metal product manufacturing (6K). Employment in health care continued to trend up (13K), led by home health care services (11K) and hospitals (8K). On the other hand, information employment declined by 23K, due to computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting, and related services (-8K), publishing industries (-7K), and in broadcasting and content providers (-5K). Meanwhile, the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June and July was revised up by a combined 55K. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The unemployment rate for September will be released. Previous: 4.1% Forecast: 4.2% The unemployment rate measures the proportion of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. A lower than expected unemployment rate is bullish, while a higher than expected unemployment rate is bearish. The US unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% in August 2026, in line with market expectations. The number of unemployed increased by 115,000 to 7.03 million, while total employment surged by 569,000 to 162.75 million. The labor force expanded by 683,000 to 169.78 million, lifting the labor force participation rate to 61.6% from a five-year low of 61.4% in July. The employment-to-population ratio also edged higher to 59.1%. Meanwhile, the broader U-6 unemployment rate, which includes discouraged and underemployed workers, eased to 7.7% from 7.9%, pointing to a modest improvement in broader labor-market conditions. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics