Inflation Rate (CPI)

Previous: 2.7%

Forecast: 2.9%

The inflation rate (CPI) measures the average change in price of a basket of consumer goods and services. Lower than expected inflation is bullish, while higher than expected inflation is bearish.

The annual inflation rate in the US edged up to 3% in January 2025, compared to 2.9% in December 2024, and above market forecasts of 2.9%, indicating stalled progress in curbing inflation. Energy costs rose 1% year-on-year, the first increase in six months, after a 0.5% fall in December, mainly due to gasoline (-0.2% vs -3.4%), fuel oil (-5.3% vs -13.1%) and natural gas (4.9% vs 4.9%). Also, prices for used cars and trucks rebounded (1% vs -3.3%), cost accelerated for transportation (8% vs 7.3%) and fell less for new vehicles (-0.3% vs -0.4%). On the other hand, inflation steadied for food (2.5% vs 2.5%) and slowed for shelter (4.4% vs 4.6%). On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.5%, above 0.4% in the previous month and expectations it would slow to 0.3%. The index for shelter rose 0.4%, accounting for nearly 30% of the increase. Meanwhile, annual core inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.3%, compared to forecasts it would slow to 3.1%. The monthly rate edged up more than expected to 0.4%. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics