Inflation Rate (CPI)

Previous: 2.4%

Forecast: 2.7%

The inflation rate (CPI) measures the average change in price of a basket of consumer goods and services. Lower than expected inflation is bullish, while higher than expected inflation is bearish.

The US annual inflation rate remained at 2.7% in in July 2025, the same as in June and below forecasts of 2.8%. Price pressures increased for used cars and trucks (4.8% vs 2.8% in June), transportation services (3.5% vs 3.4%) and new vehicles (0.4% vs 0.2%) while inflation steadied for food (2.9% vs 2.9%). On the other hand, inflation slowed slightly for shelter (3.7% vs 3.8%) and energy cost declined more (-1.6% vs -0.8%). Prices for gasoline (-9.5% vs -8.3%) and fuel oil (-2.9% vs -4.7%) continued to decrease while the rise for natural gas prices remained elevated (13.8% vs 14.2%).On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.2%, just below June’s 0.3% gain which was the strongest since January and matching expectations. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, accelerated to a five-month high of 3.1%, compared to 2.9% in June and above forecasts of 3%. The monthly core CPI went up 0.3% as expected, its sharpest rise in six months, after 0.2% previously. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics