Balance of Trade

Previous: $-73.3B

Forecast: $-90B

The balance of trade measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services. Higher than expected balance of trade is bullish, while lower than expected balance of trade is bearish.

The US trade deficit narrowed to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, broadly in line with market expectations, as imports declined more sharply than exports. Imports declined 1.8% to $388.0 billion, driven by lower purchases of capital goods and consumer goods, particularly computers and pharmaceuticals, while services imports edged higher. Exports fell 0.9% to $314.7 billion, reflecting weaker shipments of industrial supplies, including crude and fuel oil, and capital goods, although services exports increased on stronger financial services and travel. In the first half of 2026, the cumulative trade gap narrowed to $371.2 billion, down from a record $560.5 billion a year earlier, suggesting that US trade flows are gradually normalizing following last year's tariff announcements and the front-loading of imports that preceded them, although uncertainty over US trade policy remains. source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)