Inflation Rate (CPI)

Previous: 2.3%

Forecast: 2.5%

The inflation rate (CPI) measures the average change in price of a basket of consumer goods and services. Lower than expected inflation is bullish, while higher than expected inflation is bearish.

The annual inflation rate in the US rose for the first time in four months to 2.4% in May 2025 from April’s 2.3%, the lowest since 2021, but came in below expectations of 2.5%. Prices rose more for food (2.9% vs 2.8% in April), transportation services (2.8% vs 2.5%), used cars and trucks (1.8% vs 1.5%) and new vehicles (0.4% vs 0.3%). On the other hand, inflation fell slightly for shelter (3.9% vs 4%). Meanwhile, energy cost declined 3.5%, following a 3.7% fall in April. Prices for gasoline (-12% vs -11.8%) and fuel oil (-8.6% vs -9.6%) continued to decrease while the rise for natural gas prices remained elevated (15.3% vs 15.7%). On a monthly basis, the CPI edged up 0.1%, below 0.2% in the previous month and forecasts of 0.2%. In addition, annual core inflation which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained at 2.8%, holding at 2021-lows, while expectations were pointing to a rise to 2.9%. The monthly core CPI also edged up 0.1%, below 0.2% in April and expectations of 0.3%. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics